New Delhi .The cotton production estimate for India in the 2024-25 season presents a varied landscape depending on the source of the projection. The Cotton Association of India (CAI), in its report released in January 2025, revised its earlier estimate downwards to 301.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each . This figure represents a significant decrease of 7.84% compared to the 327.45 lakh bales produced in the 2023-24 season . This downward revision followed an initial increase to 304.25 lakh bales in December 2024, suggesting a developing understanding of the crop’s performance as the season progressed . Further updates from CAI in February 2025 indicated an even lower estimate of 295.30 lakh bales . This consistent trend of downward revisions from the industry body signals increasing concerns regarding the final output, potentially reflecting evolving weather patterns, intensified pest pressures, or other unforeseen challenges encountered by cotton farmers across the country.
In contrast, the Ministry of Agriculture, in its second advance estimates for the 2024-25 crop year, projected a slightly lower figure of 294.25 lakh bales . The difference between the CAI’s and the government’s estimates, while not substantial, points to a degree of uncertainty that often characterizes agricultural production forecasts. Government estimates typically draw upon a broader range of agricultural data and surveys conducted across various states, providing a comprehensive overview from a national perspective. The fact that the Ministry’s estimate aligns with the lower end of CAI’s revised projections further reinforces the likelihood of a considerable decline in cotton production for the current season.
Interestingly, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers a significantly more optimistic outlook, projecting India’s cotton production for the marketing year 2025/26 at around 320 lakh bales (equivalent to 25 million bales of 480 pounds) . This figure stands in stark contrast to the estimates from Indian organizations. The discrepancy could stem from differences in data collection methodologies, the specific timeframe covered by their reports (marketing year versus crop year), or varying interpretations of the prevailing crop conditions and yield potentials in India. USDA reports often adopt a global perspective, potentially relying on satellite imagery and broad agricultural indicators, while local agencies might have access to more granular, on-the-ground information that leads to different assessments.
Adding another perspective, the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption estimated the production for the season ending September 2025 to be 29.5 million bales, which is approximately 295 lakh bales of 170 kg . The convergence of estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture, the latest CAI figure, and the Committee within the range of 294-295 lakh bales suggests a growing consensus among Indian stakeholders that the final cotton output for the 2024-25 season is likely to fall within this range. This level of agreement among multiple independent and authoritative bodies increases the confidence in this projection.
Notably, the anticipated production for the 2024-25 season is projected to be at a seven-year low, marking the lowest output since the 2018-19 season . This signifies a potentially significant downturn for India’s cotton sector, with potential ramifications for the textile industry, export earnings, and the economic well-being of cotton farmers across the country. A sustained period of such low production could erode India’s position as a leading global producer and exporter of cotton, potentially necessitating an increased reliance on imports to meet domestic demand and impacting the overall competitiveness of the Indian textile industry in the international market
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