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USDA forecasts lower 2020 wheat carryover

WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Dec. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projected the carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2020, at 974 million bushels, down 40 million bushels, or 3.9%, from the November projection, down 106 million bushels, or 10%, from 1.080 billion bushels in 2019 and the lowest in five years. Corn and soybean 2020 carryover forecasts were unchanged from November.

The lower all wheat carryover was based on projected lower imports and higher exports for 2019-20. Imports were forecast at 105 million bushels (the lowest in nine years), down 15 million bushels from November, including hard red spring wheat down 5 million bushels and durum down 10 million bushels. Exports were forecast at 975 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from November “on a strong pace to date, more competitive prices and reduced supplies from several major competitors,” the USDA said. Unchanged from November were beginning stocks at 1.080 billion bushels, production at 1.920 billion bushels, food use of wheat at 955 million bushels, seed use at 61 million bushels and feed and residual use at 140 million bushels. The average of all wheat paid to farmers in 2019-20 was projected at $4.55 a bushel, down 5¢ from November and down 61¢ from $5.16 per bushel in 2018-19.

On a by-class basis, hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2020, was forecast at 483 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from November, hard red spring at 269 million bushels, down 10 million bushels, soft red winter at 111 million bushels, unchanged, white wheat at 85 million bushels, unchanged, and durum at 26 million bushels, down 20 million bushels.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2020, was projected at 1.910 billion bushels, unchanged from November with all supply-and-use estimates also unchanged.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2020, was projected at 475 million bushels, unchanged, as were other supply-and-use forecasts. The average price of soybeans was projected at $8.85 a bushel, down 5¢ from November but up 37¢ from 2018-19.

The USDA does not issue updated corn and soybean production forecasts in December. The next revisions will be in the annual report in January